March 08, 2004

Electoral Math

I went over to a site where you can create your own electoral map, and plugged in the official BunkoSquad projections for 2004. By the way, the map reverses the blue and red, so it's a litle disconcerting to think for a second that all the Midwest has gone Democratic.

Here's what I came up with:

Probably Republican: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY. (161 electoral votes)

Probably Democratic: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WV, WI. (281 electoral votes)

Not sure: AR, CO, FL, GA, LA, MO, NV, NH, NM. (96 electoral votes)

Of course, depending on Kerry's running mate and Bush's self-destructive impulses (those 9/11 ads really worked, huh?), some is subject to change. But except for (possibly) West Virginia or Oregon, I can't see any of the Democratic states leaving. Even that would give Kerry 269 and only needing one more state.

The right VP might even put Tennessee and the Carolinas back in play: with a Southern VP candidate (Clark? Edwards? Graham?) and an honest election in Florida, this could be a major league asskicking.

Best case scenario? A possible 391-147 Kerry rout, according to my count. Worst case scenario? Same as always; another terrorist attack in October, which "suspends" the election "indefinitely".

Of course, this is all conjecture and should not be used for purposes of wagering.

Comments

Seriously, where are the Nader states? Anyone? Anyone? Nader?

Posted by: Monkeyspit at March 8, 2004 09:37 PM

At this rate I wouldn't be shocked if he finished second in a couple of states.

Posted by: michael at March 9, 2004 12:41 AM

Not posssible. Kerry is roasted in an electoral landslide. Kerry at best will take all of New England, exempting Maine and New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, California, and possibly Ohio. If the question is "Can Bush be beaten?", the answer is yes. If the question is "Can Bush be beaten by Kerry?" , then barring a major scandal or economic disaster, then the answer is No! This actually has the feel of a the Reagan-Mondale campaign, and I believe it will have a similar ending. Trust me, no one with the left wing past and voting record of Kerry is going to even come close to unseating Bush. Kerry is a lackluster politician who has never had a tough race. The double talk and liberalism may wash in Massachusetts, but it will not play anywhere else. Liberals who come up with the numbers you did, remind me of the children's book 'Harold & The Purple Crayon' They try to re-invent reality to configure to their beliefs, rather than seeing reality as just that. I'm calling a Bush landslide now, purple crayoning aside.

Posted by: Rudolfo at March 21, 2004 02:58 PM

Rudolfo misses the point; this isn't about Bush vs. Kerry. It's about how many people recognize how oppressive Bush's regime is. It's about progressive freedom vs. reactionary parentalism. I'm hopeful but dubious that enough votes will be cast against Bush in places like Ohio and Florida, regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.

Posted by: NoKerryLover at May 24, 2004 07:38 PM

It is certainly way too early to tell about how the electoral college will turnout. I seriously doubt it will be a landslide either way. Unfortunately, NoKerryLover falls into the same self-deluding myopic view that all the "anybody but Bush crowd" does. (And that the "anybody but Clinton" crowd did in the 1996 election.) The fact is that because one is a fanatical Bush hater (or Bushitler as they childishly like to refer to him), one naturally converses with other true believers and fellow conspiracy theorists, and comes to the conclusion that "everybody I know hates Bush", therefore Bush is doomed. In the real world, it takes somebody to beat an incumbent, not just anybody. Just ask President Bob Dole if you doubt this. From this stand point, the Democrats are in deep trouble, as John Kerry is worse than just anybody...he is almost nobody. Those of us in the country who aren't knee jerk Bush/Republican haters, but who would still be open to someone of strength, conviction and intelligence to replace Mr. Bush, will not be impressed by such an absolute characature of a weak, flip-flopping, double speaking machine politician as Senator Kerry.

Posted by: NoBushLover at May 25, 2004 10:06 AM

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